Submitted Photo As shown on this map released by the Climate Prediction Center, warmer than usual weather is favored for nearly all of the United States through December.

With cool temperatures in the air, even the mention of snow sneaking into weather forecasts, there remains a possibility that the Minot region will experience a warmer than usual winter in the months ahead.

The Climate Prediction Center issued its latest three-month weather outlook Thursday. The CPC rates nearly all of the United States, North Dakota included, as having a better than average chance of experiencing a warmer than normal winter. Precipitation, says the CPC, should be about average through the end of December.

El Nino update

The CPC continues its issuance of an El Nino Watch, saying there is a 50-55 percent chance of El Nino conditions influencing our weather through November and a 65-70 percent chance of El Nino influence beginning as early as December and continuing well into 2019. This history of El Nino events, a warming of Pacific Ocean temperatures, is that winter temperatures in North Dakota are generally above average and snowfall below average.

Currently, says the CPC, El Nino indicators remain somewhat neutral, “a blend of slightly above-and-below average sea surface temperatures.” However, adds the CPC, a majority of forecast models favor El Nino formation later this fall albeit most likely a weak El Nino. Nevertheless, El Nino conditions of any degree should deter the number of colder than normal days in the coming months.

The first day of autumn is Saturday. The CPC’s next El Nino update is expected during the second week of October.

Drought conditions persist

The U.S. Drought Monitor reveals increasing concern over dry conditions at several locations in the country with drought expansion occurring in North Dakota. Much of the northern part of McHenry County is considered to be in extreme drought. A large section of the state, including Ward, Renville and Bottineau Counties is considered to be severe drought.

“Drought conditions continued in northwestern North Dakota, where precipitation over the past two months has been less than 30 percent of normal,” says the CPC.

The CPC noted that Hettinger County in southwestern North Dakota has received just 20 percent of normal precipitation over the past 60 days. Additionally, drought concerns are growing in neighboring South Dakota where the capitol of Pierre has received less than 25 percent of average rainfall over the past two months.