Jill Schramm/MDN Airline passengers gather around the baggage area in the Minot airport terminal Tuesday. The airport is forecast to be busier this year than it has been in recent years.

This year could be a good one for air travel to and from Minot, according to a consultant who presented the local forecast and wider industry trends to the Minot City Council Monday.

Looking at Delta Air Line’s schedule for the year and Allegiant Air’s and United Airline’s schedules through July, presenter Mike Bown estimated enplanement numbers of 185,000 passengers in 2024. The North Dakota Aeronautics Commission listed Minot enplanements in 2023 at 146,769, the highest total since pre-COVID 2019.

“This would be the best year in Minot since 2015. So over the last decade, this will be the best year we have seen in quite some time,” said Bown, who prepared the forecast for the city’s airport consultant, Decomm Aviation Consulting.

“These are based on published schedules and published capacity. Could these change? They could, but generally, they’re pretty firm through summer,” he added. “I think is going to be a good year even if we see a little pullback here later in the year.”

Based on airline schedules, seat capacity through July in Minot is expected to be up almost 19%, Bown said.

“That’s a big number in today’s industry – I will tell you that – particularly for an airport the size of Minot,” he said. “Allegiant is going to be up 90%, almost doubling.”

Allegiant is adding back flights to Phoenix and keeping service to Orlando, Florida, year-round at this point, he said.

“I wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled it back a little bit this fall but it’s still in the schedule today,” he said. “United Airlines has added frequency and they are also adding bigger airplanes.”

He said Minot is benefiting from the industry trend of larger aircraft as about 40% of regional jets servicing Minot for United are expected to be 70-76 seat planes, as compared to 50-seat planes.

“Right now they’ve got double the capacity this coming July and August as they had last summer. So you’re looking at some real, pretty significant growth here in the near term,” Bown said. “Delta’s pulled back a little bit, but they were probably closest to where they were pre-COVID.”

Bown said Minot’s rosy forecast for 2024 comes despite the difficulty that smaller and midsize markets could face in light of industry trends. He identified key trends in the industry as pilot shortages, which particularly affect regional airlines; rising costs, especially labor costs but also maintenance and operations; and a shift from business and government travel to leisure travel.

Minot is taking advantage of the leisure travel trend, Bown said.

“You’ve got nonstop service now to Phoenix Vegas, Orlando – probably the three most attractive vacation destinations in the United States,” he said.

Another trend is growth in ultra-low cost carriers, such as Allegiant, Bown said. As airline costs rise, though, he predicts airfares overall will go higher as well.