Dry conditions dominate the region.

That is the conclusion of the U.S. Drought Monitor’s weekly issuance of conditions on the High Plains, particularly North Dakota. In fact, says the Drought Monitor, “Due to ongoing dryness in the Dakotas” severe drought conditions has pushed eastward across the state and into neighboring Minnesota.”

One week ago the Drought Monitor considered 69% of North Dakota to be in the “severe” drought category. This week that percentage has climbed to just over 80%. The remainder of the state is classified as being in “moderate” drought. Furthermore, there are ominous signs that the lack of moisture in the state will worsen.

“Livestock producers in the Dakotas are already separating out their animals in anticipation of needing to sell some off due to drought in the region,” states the Drought Monitor. “Another aspect of a winter with very little snow is that fire danger has rapidly increased in North Dakota. The local National Weather Service offices have started making their fire weather products more than a month early in response to the drought conditions.”

It is expected that more range fires will occur in the state in the coming weeks. Already this spring 33 fires have burned more than 20,000 acres in North Dakota. Compounding the situation is temperatures that have been “warmer than normal over much of the northern Plains” adds the Drought Monitor.

An example is the warm start to March in the capital city of Bismarck where the first 10 days of the month is the warmest on record for the area. The average high for those days was 57 degrees as compared to the previous record for the same period, set in 2016, of 52 degrees.

Furthermore, dry conditions are not just limited to North Dakota. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is already considering conservation measures for the Missouri River Basin if dry conditions persist. Runoff into the basin in 2021 is expected to be 21.8 million acre feet of water, 84% of average. That estimate has been declining the past few months.

Souris River Flood Potential Outlook

The latest Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for the Souris River Basin also reflects very dry conditions. It notes that a mere one-quarter of an inch of water was in the scant snowfall that has already melted due to warm temperatures. It concludes “the risk of widespread flood is as low as its been in many years” and that “above normal precipitation going forward” is needed to improve the drought outlook.

“With each passing week the greater threat to the region is the continuation of the dry weather pattern. Drought, which has been lingering since the spring of 2020, is increasingly a concern as the region goes into spring,” reads the Outlook.

At Lake Darling, located on the Souris River above Minot, the release gates remain closed. The reservoir is below its prescribed operating level and, with no water expected to be flowing from the Souris into Lake Darling this spring, it is highly unlikely Lake Darling will reach its normal operating level this summer.

As for the probability of flooding on the Souris or its tributaries this spring, it remains at less than a five-percent chance of reaching even minor flood stage. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a continuation of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation is expected for the Minot area through at least March 25.