Submitted Photo This map shows developing dry conditions over Ward County and much of western North Dakota.

Following what was very agreeable spring weather in March and April, there’s growing concern about a lack of precipitation over much of North Dakota. If the forecast for the remainder of June holds true, or close to it, many areas of the state could experience serious drought conditions within a few weeks.

“I’m very concerned about it,” said John Paul Martin, National Weather Service, Bismarck. “We go from the wettest year on record, 2019, possibly right into a drought. May was the fifth month in a row with below normal precipitation in Bismarck. The climate here is remarkable.”

“We’re living on last year’s stored water. That’s what’s saving our bacon right now,” added Allen Schlag, hydrologist, NWS Bismarck.

Farmers who contended with wet conditions during the planting season are now keeping a close watch on soil moisture. In most areas there was enough ground moisture to ensure germination of crops, but rainfall is necessary for continued growth. So far in 2020 there has been very little.

The precipitation totals in many areas, which includes both snow melt and rainfall, is approaching numbers not seen since the historic dry years of the 1930s. Through June 15 Bismarck has recorded just 2.13 inches of precipitation for 2020. Average for the same period is 7.02 inches.

“So far in June, Bismarck hasn’t even had a third of an inch yet,” said Schlag. “March had only three days with a tenth or more. That’s paltry.”

While Bismarck may be at the epicenter of what is a developing drought, it is by no means an island. Williston’s precipitation for the year is running about half of normal. Same for Dickinson in the southwest and the Underwood area south of Minot. Minot’s precipitation totals are well below the long-term average too.

Through Monday Minot had recorded 4.20 inches of precipitation, including snowmelt, at the North Central Research Extension Center south of the city. That compares to an average for the date of 7.72 inches. Though the deficit is not quite as bad, like Bismarck, Minot has had below normal precipitation for five months running.

Last week’s Drought Monitor placed nearly all of Ward County in the “moderate drought” category that now extends from the Canadian border to South Dakota, covering much of western North Dakota. Is severe drought imminent?

“I think we’re there already without some significant help,” stated Schlag. “We’re going to see the impact start accumulating. This portion of the year is absolutely crucial for the development of most of our native forage.”

Pastureland would probably be the first casualty of continued dry weather. Planted crops are somewhat different, with varying amounts of moisture necessary for development. Still, a general and widespread rainfall doesn’t appear to be likely and, even if it were to occur, it might arrive too late to alleviate dry conditions.

“A single, large rain event will not cure the problem,” noted Schlag. “Everything will look great for about a week and just delay the impact. We are rapidly approaching the beginning of July, a very important time for farmers and ranchers.”

Hay is often harvested in early July but, without rainfall, the harvest could be minimal. A continued lack of moisture could take a serious toll on small grains and other crops.

Average rainfall for the Minot region in June is nearly four inches, making it the wettest month in North Dakota, but the outlook is anything but favorable for farmers and ranchers. According to the Climate Prediction Center, well below normal rainfall and well above average temperatures are favored for most of the state through the end of this month, meaning drought conditions would intensify.

While the CPC looks ahead, there’s other indicators pointing toward additional dry weather. Forecasts calling for rain over the past several weeks have not come to fruition. Weather systems carrying moisture have been fizzling out over an increasingly dry western half of the state. While some thunderstorms have dropped significant rainfall, it has only been enough to help isolated areas. Persistent high winds that dry out the soil is an added cause for concern.

“There are indicators all around me of the bigger picture,” said Schlag. “People have to cling to the hope that a 30% chance of thunderstorms will bring something.”

Other states are beginning to see a troubling increase in dry conditions too. Southeast Colorado is in extreme drought, in some areas recording their driest weather ever. Drought conditions are also intensifying in vast areas of Oklahoma and Kansas and, says the Drought Monitor, there is an “expansion of abnormal dryness across much of the northern Great Plains.”

The next Drought Monitor will be released Thursday.