A farm tractor and equipment at the edge of a McHenry County field could be ready to go if the snow ever melts. It’s been that kind of a spring, and falling commodity prices could mean less profit on crops seeded this year. Phot by Jill Schramm/MDN

FARGO – Soybeans, dry edible beans and canola are among the best bets for turning a farm profit this year, although spring wheat could be a wild card win.

That’s how things are penciling out at the North Dakota State University Extension Service, but crop profits are likely to be lower overall than last year, according to Andy Swenson, Extension farm resource management specialist.

Swenson calculated projected expenses and income last December to estimate the profitability of different crop scenarios across the regions of the state.

“It’s the price of the crop that swings the profits the most,” said Swenson, noting the recent drop in wheat prices turned what had appeared to be profit in December into break even or a slight loss this spring. Spring wheat could swing back to the profitable side if prices rise again, so Swenson isn’t ready to rule out the crop yet.

Also, farmers need to consider their individual operations, rotation systems, experience with a crop and other factors in making seeding decisions. The generic profitability picture might not coincide with a producer’s actual experience, Swenson said.

NDSU’s online 2018 Crop Compare tool on the ag.ndsu.edu website offers farmers a way to more specifically calculate which crops might be more profitable for their operations. Swenson said the best way to get to the tool is through a Google search for “NDSU Crop Compare.”

In general, though, soybeans are showing profitability despite a recent price drop.

“When I did my projections in December, it showed a positive return to labor and management in all the regions in the state. Since then prices went up and came down but they are still higher than the projections I was using in December,” Swenson said. “That tells me, looking at the numbers, there should be some incentive to plant soybeans.”

Farmers looking at oil seed crops might want to consider canola.

“Canola looks like it will return a positive return, not a big positive but it looks positive. Sunflowers is kind of a break even. Canola looks a little better,” Swenson said. Flax also shows a slight positive in the profit projection.

The prediction is for fewer corn acres in the state this year, and Swenson said that makes sense based on the tough profitability forecast for that crop. Although malting barley historically has shown good returns, he puts barley in the same boat as corn this year because of recent prices.

When he looks at where farmers might plant additional acres, he notes, “The nod probably goes to soybeans right now, where earlier I would have said spring wheat.”

Spring wheat saw a price run-up last year that was making the crop look attractive going into 2018, he said. Prices since have fallen off, but Swenson believes there still may be some jump in spring wheat acres. Much depends on how flexible farmers are in making their spring seeding plans, he said.

Overall, input costs for farmers could be up modestly.

“This year interest rates are up a little bit, and fuel and fertilizer are up some,” Swenson said. However, he added, crop yields have been increasing, which can mean more profit. Yields were hampered in areas hardest hit by the drought last year, but generally, yields have been stronger, he said.

“If you ask about modest increase in cost being offset by revenue, I would say probably no. It varies from crop to crop, but overall it looks to me like farm income, at least on the cropping side of it, will probably be down a little bit in 2018,” Swenson said. “There will be a down tick in net farm income from crops in 2018 – not a collapse but a down tick.”

Based on current prices – which don’t necessarily foretell future prices in a market that’s highly volatile – Swenson roughly estimated farm income could drop 10 to 15 percent.

For more detailed explanations and results of the Extension’s calculations on return to management and labor from different crops, do a browser search for “NDSU crop budgets.” Results are available by region for 2018 and previous years. The budget also can be used as a tool in determining potential returns based on an individual farm’s inputs.