Zohran Mamdani’s lead in first choices in New York City’s ranked-choice mayoral primary, and his inevitable victory when second, third, fourth and fifth choices of trailing candidates are allocated to candidates voters ranked lower, mean that he’ll be the Democratic nominee for mayor of the nation’s largest city and the likely winner of the general election in November.

Mamdani, 33, is a three-term state assemblyman who calls himself a democratic socialist. He has backed a rent freeze, city-run grocery stores, free buses, putting homeless service centers in the subways, a $30 minimum wage, defunding the police, and replacing police with “community safety” officers.

Why did Mamdani beat Andrew Cuomo, who, like his father, was elected three times as governor? One reason: He’s a likeable candidate with clever, memorable ads and a vigorous personal campaigner who inspired thousands of volunteers. He undeniably has charm, something hard to define but easy to spot: Think former Presidents John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

He’s also capable of the seasoned politician’s slippery evasion. Asked by The Bulwark’s Tim Miller if he was troubled by the slogan “global intifada,” he said he considers it “a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights.”

The counting of second, third, fourth and fifth choices in New York’s ranked-choice system will continue into July, although Mamdani’s nomination is certain and already makes nonsense of ranked-choice voting advocates’ claims that it favors centrist candidates.

Certainly, Mamdani seems the favorite to win in November.

But incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent, and despite a now-dismissed and bizarre federal indictment, he might try to cobble together a constituency of Cuomo-voting Democrats and Republicans in a city where President Donald Trump’s percentage of the vote rose from 18% in 2016 to 30% in 2024. One possible tactic is to promise to keep his popular police commissioner, Jessica Tisch.

The barista proletariat has established itself as a significant and sometimes decisive constituency in Democratic primaries. But its agenda may prove disqualifying in larger arenas.