North Dakota’s Bakken counties saw some bounce back in population last year, while the Minot area experienced a little more decline, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today.

The Minot Metropolitan Area, consisting of Ward, Renville and McHenry counties, listed a July 2023 estimated population of 75,742, down 0.6% from July 2022. The Minot metro area had entered the decade with an official population of 77,561.

Ward County was at 68,332 in the estimates, a drop of 0.7% that continued a slow downward trend since the official 2020 Census. Renville County, at 2,279, was up 1.3%, and McHenry County stood at 5,131, down 1.2%.

Kevin Iverson, North Dakota State Center Data manager, acknowledged North Dakota is a difficult state to assess when it comes to determining population change between censuses, which prompts some caution around estimates. Estimates particularly seem to underestimate in-migration because North Dakota’s inflow typically involves younger people who aren’t as easily captured using the measurement tools, such as income tax filings, he said.

“This is really significant, I think, when you look at Williams County having gained by migration in the last year,” Iverson said.

Even with the risk of overlooking newcomers, Williams County and McKenzie County, in the heart of the Bakken, led the state with 3% and 2.6% growth, respectively, in the estimates from July 2022 to July 2023. Mountrail County was up 1.5%

Eighteen of the state’s 53 counties registered estimated gains, which was enough to lift the state’s 2023 estimate to 783,926, up 5,014 residents or 0.6%.

Williams and Mountrail County both saw a drop from 2021 to 2022, and McKenzie only a very slight increase, going into the 2022-23 gains. Iverson predicts that growth will prove to have a ripple effect on Ward County when the 2024 estimates are released next year.

Iverson couldn’t point to any singular event that is sparking gains in certain areas.

“Overall, the state’s economy is kind of humming,” he said. “Generally, it’s oil related.”

However, he noted the economy took a nosedive due to the COVID-19 pandemic and what is seen now may be part of the population rise that follows an improving economy.

Some of the most consistent growth continues to be in the Fargo and Cass County areas. Cass County was up 1.9%, and the Fargo Metropolitan Area, which includes Cass and Clay County in Minnesota, was up 1.6%.

The state’s metropolitan areas in addition to Minot registered populations of: Fargo, 262,620; Bismarck 135,786; and Grand Forks, 103,120. Bismarck’s area (Burleigh, Morton and Oliver counties) was up 0.6%, while Grand Forks (Grand Forks County and Polk County, Minnesota) was largely flat.

Bismarck and Fargo saw net in-migration exceed the natural increase from births exceeding deaths. The Grand Forks and Minot areas lost population due to out-migration.

The Minot area gained 458 residents in natural increase, losing an estimated 1,122 residents to out-migration, although international in-migration of 175 reduced the net migration loss to 947.

Iverson is optimistic for the Minot area in years ahead, though.

Forecasts prepared by the State Data Center in the North Dakota Department of Commerce include one model showing Minot’s seven-county region growing from just fewer than 100,000 residents in 2020 to 117,109 by 2050. In comparison, the Grand Forks region, which is feeling the economic pull of Fargo, is projected to grow from 93,592 to 97,728 residents.

Forecasts can be fickle, but the prediction is Ward County could become the state’s third largest county by 2050, with a population of nearly 86,000.