Kim Fundingsland/MDN Indicative of dry conditions in the region, the Souris River in Minot is very low. Precipitation over much of North Dakota and the western United States has been well below normal levels so far this year.

Citing well-below normal precipitation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has again reduced the projected Feb. 28, 2021, water level for Lake Sakakawea.

The annual target level for Lake Sakakawea is 1,837.5 feet, which is the top of the carryover multiple use zone. The latest projection provided by the Corps is for a Feb. 28, 2021 level of 1,836.5 feet. It marks the fourth straight month of declining water level projections for Sakakawea.

Missouri River Basin runoff on June 1 was predicted to be 32.3 million acre feet. In July that number dropped to 31.2 maf, declined again in the Aug. 1 outlook to 30.9 maf, on September 1 to 30.6 maf and the latest, Oct. 1, to 30.2 maf.

“Six months ago the sponge was pretty wet up there,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “It kind of fell off the table in July. It is dry, dry, dry in the northern and western part of the basin but, right now, there’s no reason to be alarmed.”

Although runoff projections have been falling the past few months, the latest projection of 30.2 maf of water remains 117% of the 25.8 maf average for the upper Missouri River Basin. Given moderate to severe drought conditions present in large areas of Montana, North Dakota and elsewhere in the drainage, that number could decline further in upcoming monthly outlooks. Of course, should significant precipitation occur, it could also impact the monthly outlooks.

“We are projecting to be about a foot lower than usual on the big three, Garrison, Fort Peck and Oahe, at the end of February,” said Remus. “We will see what the winter does as far as snow in the upper basin and set our spring releases based on that.”

The release rate through Garrison Dam is currently 14,000 cubic feet per second with a reduction to 13,000 cfs to begin Thursday, Oct. 8. Water released through the Missouri River reservoir system is based on the amount of water stored on July 1.

“We are meeting the Master Manual navigation targets downstream in the system,” explained Remus. “The navigation support season ends December 1. We will be about 800,000 acre feet below the flood control zone system-wide by the start of the 2021 runoff season.”

Water released from the major impoundments is also used to produce turbine generated electricity. According to the Corps, six mainstem power plants generated 875 million kilowatt hours of electricity in September. Typical energy generation for September is 905 million kWh. The power plants are projected to generate 10.1 billion kWh of electricity this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.

The basin was extremely wet in 2011 and followed that up with what Remus called the “flash drought of 2012.”

“But we came out of that in 2013,” remarked Remus. “Unfortunately, we don’t have the ability to predict when we will go into a wet or dry cycle, either extended or a one year thing.”

What is known now is that dry conditions are evident throughout the region and that drought development is underway. High winds in late summer and early fall have helped exasperate soil moisture conditions. The lack of precipitation is also evident.

As of Tuesday Minot had received less than 11 inches of precipitation for the year, nearly 4.5 inches below normal for the date. Precipitation is lacking elsewhere in the state too. Bismarck is down 8.44 inches for the year, Hettinger 7.72, Dickinson 6.58 and Jamestown 6.18 inches.

On Tuesday the National Weather Service issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of the state, citing high winds and very low relative humidity.

The water level in Lake Darling is about one-half foot below its winter operating level of 1,596 feet and its release gates remain closed. Canadian reservoirs that supply Souris River water for Lake Darling are low too and are not releasing any water. The lack of flow is evident in the Souris River above and below Lake Darling.

On Tuesday the measured flow in the Souris at the Sherwood gauge was a mere 1.59 cubic feet per second as compared to the long-term average of 26.0 cfs. The Foxholm gauge showed a paltry 0.12 cfs Tuesday and the Boy Scout Bridge gauge west of Minot 3.53 cfs.

It should be noted that low flows in the Souris are not particularly unusual for this time of year but, given the drying out of the soils and lack of rainfall, do raise some early concern about replenishment of moisture whether it be from rainfall or spring snowmelt.