An appeal that would remove many Minot homes from the proposed flood plain is on its way this week to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The Minot City Council voted Monday to submit completed documents presented by Ackerman-Estvold to FEMA through the agency’s appeal process. The council had voted last February to proceed with an appeal of proposed flood plain maps. The deadline for filing an appeal comes up early next month.

Ackerman-Estvold prepared the new map, flood insurance study revisions and models based on revised hydrology and hydraulics that the city believes are more accurate.

“We’re going to basically point out things that we feel are scientifically and technically incorrect,” Ryan Ackerman with Ackerman-Estvold said of the map appeal.

FEMA has identified 10,000 cubic feet per second as the 100-year flood level. That is twice the flow that has been considered a 100-year flood event.

The appeal argues that historical Souris River management, particularly the drawdown of Canadian dams, results in a 100-year event that would not be greater than about 8,000 cfs.

A successful appeal would reduce the number of Minot land parcels in the flood plain from about 3,900 to about 3,400, reducing the cost of flood insurance for those residents.

“There’s a benefit to everybody, though, within the valley, because the depth of that 100-year flood elevation down to their lowest floor – that’s what is used to determine your flood insurance premiums. That depth decreases on average by about a foot and a half. Once flood insurance rates go fully actuarial, we would estimate those annual flood insurance premium cost savings to Minot residents being somewhere between $4 million and $8 million a year,” Ackerman said.

The number of parcels in Minot within the more highly regulated floodway is about 850 at 10,000 cfs. That would drop to about 340 at 8,000 cfs and about 190 of those are owned by the City of Minot or Minot Park District. More importantly, the number of structures in the floodway would decrease from about 770 to about 20, and the majority are owned by the city or park district.

According to engineers, the appeal will affect not just Minot because changing the hydrology data has implications throughout the Souris River Basin.

The appeal is likely to be heard before an independent scientific body, the Scientific Resolution Panel, for a final decision on the acceptance of the appeal. The city and FEMA must engage in a collaborative consultation process for 60 to 120 days before the Scientific Resolution Panel is convened. Once convened, the Scientific Resolution Panel has 90 days to issue a report on its decision.

If the city loses the appeal, its recourse is to take the matter to federal court. The appeal alone is expected to cost about $250,000.

Getting the flood plain right is significant because of the impact on flood insurance premium rates. It is estimated typical flood insurance costs will be increasing 10-fold, to about $5,000 a year. Homeowners who already carry insurance will see the increase imposed incrementally rather than all at once.

An appeal also delays the finalization of FEMA’s maps, which could happen by the end of this year without an appeal. The city will get six months to create implementing ordinances before a new map becomes effective.

Last winter, Minot had about 1,929 active flood policies, with a total premium of just over $1 million, according to FEMA information presented to the council earlier this year. Based on existing maps that consider 5,000 cfs as the 100-year flood, Minot is largely out of the flood plain, and the annual premium on a $250,000 residential policy with $100,000 in contents this past year was $582, or $712 with fees.