Census estimates show population loss in area
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Minot's micropolitan area shrunk by 1.7 percent in the year that ended July 1, 2017, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau today.
The counties of Ward, Renville and McHenry, which make up Minot's micropolitan area, lost an estimated 1,355 residents, with the bulk of that coming from Ward County. The figures show an estimated 77,309 residents in the three counties.
The census estimates reflect a continued effect from the slowing of oil activity in the Bakken, at least in some areas. Williams County declined nearly 2.5 percent, although Mountrail and McKenzie counties each saw a bit of an increase. The three counties remain significantly more populated than in 2010, however. Williams is up nearly 11,000 residents and McKenzie's size has doubled.
Kevin Iverson, state census director with the North Dakota Department of Commerce, said he expects northwest North Dakota's period of out-migration has run its course, based on demographic and economic indicators.
Migration habits indicate that moving is easier for young males compared to females or couples and families. Iverson said he suspects young males accounted for a good share of northwestern North Dakota's losses.
Population change also tends to follow the economy, with about a six-month lag, Iverson said. A Bureau of Economic Analysis report on state Gross Domestic Product reported a negative quarter for North Dakota in early 2017, followed by a couple of stronger quarters.
"I would expect we are going to see little change to some growth when we look at this next year," Iverson said.
He added the latest census estimates show the shockwave from the Bakken into eastern North Dakota is still having some effect. Even small counties such as Benson, Eddy, Kidder, Sheridan and Towner are among those in the population increase column, according to estimates.
Ward County's population estimate fell by 1.7 percent to 68,946. That reflected net migration of -1,899, which was offset somewhat by births exceeding deaths.
The number of births in the three counties in Minot's micropolitan area has been dropping after hitting a recent high of 1,396 in the year ended July 2015. The 1,260 births in the year ended July 2017 remained well ahead of deaths. The gain was more than offset by net migration, which the Census Bureau estimated at a loss of 2,112 residents in 2016 and another 2,062 residents in 2017.
Ward County's population was shown to peak at 71,430 in July 2015 in the estimates before declining. However, the county remains 7,271 residents ahead of the 2010 census numbers. Minot's micropolitan area has seen 7,769 additional residents, or 11 percent growth, since 2010.