Population contracts
Census estimate shows Minot population down 1.6 percent
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Minot's population fell by nearly 1.6 percent last year, according to new estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau today.
The estimates listed Minot's July 2016 population at 48,743, down 778 residents from a year earlier. While North Dakota's overall population continues to grow, most of that growth is in and around Fargo, Bismarck and Grand Forks.
Kevin Iverson, state census director, said Minot's decline needs to be viewed from the perspective of having gained more than 7,800 people since the official 2010 census. The estimated population remains up 19.2 percent from April 2010.
"It's kind of good news, bad news. We are still a lot further ahead than we were in 2010," Iverson said.
His supposition is that loss in northwestern North Dakota is largely in the demographic category of young, adult males. It is a group that migrates easily, and as the job and wage situation changes due to slower activity in the oil fields, these workers are likely to move if they do not have roots in the area, he said.
Among cities over 1,000 population, Tioga's 6.2 percent population decline to 1,547 was the state's loss leader. Neighboring Ray also saw a 4.8 percent decline to 796. However, Iverson raised a caution about estimates for small population areas. He said estimates are dependent on available data, and the confidence does diminish at subcounty levels, particularly in smaller communities.
Drake McClelland, Tioga City Commission president, said the 6 percent sounds about right. The loss has been mostly oil-field workers, although some families have left, he said. New families also have moved in, so the population change is having no negative affect on the schools, he added. Where it's being felt is in city finances.
"We notice our sales taxes have definitely gone down," McClelland said.
Williston, another Williams County oil boom community, registered a 2.4 percent population decline to 26,426 from July 2015 to July 2016. Watford City, in McKenzie County, saw a 4.4 percent decline to 6,390, while Stanley, in Mountrail County, was down not quite 1 percent to 2,686.
Most communities in the immediate Minot region largely held their own. However, farther from a population center, Kenmare was down 2.3 percent to 1,059, Harvey declined 1.3 percent to 1,743 and Rugby was down .8 percent to 2,815.
The census bureau also released a housing unit report that shows Ward County housing is up 261 units despite a population decline from 2015 to 2016 of 1.6 percent to 70,210. Statewide, housing is up 5,800 units. North Dakota's estimated 2016 population showed growth of 1,127 people, or .15 percent, to 757,952.