Source: Minot Housing Supply and Demand Analysis Update

Minot’s housing stock has more inventory and is weighted somewhat more heavily toward multi-family apartments than it was six years ago.

A housing study released by the City of Minot in March found the number of housing units increased by 29 percent, from 15,854 to 20,394, from 2010 through June 2016. There were 1,316 new single-family homes constructed. The number of multi-family units increased by 77 percent or 3,234 units, and there were 617 new manufactured homes added.

In 2010, 69 percent of Minot’s housing stock was single-family housing, 24 percent was multi-family and 7 percent was manufactured housing. Today, 59 percent of the housing stock is single-family housing, 33 percent multi-family and 8 percent manufactured housing, the study found.

Today, there are 13,019 single-family homes and 7,375 multi-family apartments in Minot. Based on population projections showing a 21 percent increase to 62,778 residents and non-resident workers in Minot by 2024, housing will be short without more construction. At that time, it is estimated there will be 14,376 owner households and 10,918 renter households needing places to live.

Based on an analysis of building permits and occupancy permits issued from 2011 to 2016, researchers found 184 multi-family housing units under construction in August 2016, representing a “pipeline inventory” of multi-family housing. In addition, there were 258 “foundation only” permits issued, of which 48 were open/active.

The study report stated in summary: “As long as the Bakken oil fields remain in operation, the cycles of the oil industry, in conjunction with the currently over-built market in Minot, can impact rents and housing availability. Over time, as factors such as population growth and the NDR (National Disaster Resilience) buy-out/buy-in program create new demand, the vacancy rates in market-rate multi-family housing will certainly decline and rents will normalize.”

The study continued: “Fortunately, Minot has not experienced high, long-term housing vacancies. Properties which remain vacant over a long period of time and are more likely to contribute to blight, high foreclosure rates, and abandonment. Areas that experience higher levels of long-term residential vacancies generally have a low housing demand and a very weak housing market. Minot should continue to monitor housing conditions to ensure that areas where higher vacancies or abandonment occur are quickly identified and addressed using tools that are already available. In addition, recommendations for monitoring residential building permits, job growth, and other analytics should be considered and policies developed that could help avoid overbuilding in future oil cycles.”