Trending
Iran’s strategy in this war was never complicated. The mullahs believed that if they choked the Strait of Hormuz long enough, Americans would feel it at the gas pump and Washington would lose its nerve before the midterms.
Brent crude spiked past $107 a barrel this month, and Iranian-aligned militias sent drones into Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and shut it down for more than a week. Tehran was betting that pain at the pump would break us before its own economy broke.
That bet has failed, and President Donald Trump deserves immense credit for it.
Crude exports from the Persian Gulf are back at pre-war levels. JPMorgan puts the 10-day average at 17.5 million barrels a day, which is 98% of where it stood before the war. Goldman Sachs estimates the region exported 19 million barrels a day over the past week. Brent has come off its highs to about $103, and West Texas crude is trading around $90.
Before the war, 83% of Gulf crude had to cross the Strait of Hormuz. In September, about 60% crossed the strait, and 23% went through a UAE pipeline to the Gulf of Oman. 17% flowed through a Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea. Iran thought it held a chokehold on the world economy, and the Gulf simply routed around it.
Iran is now the one country in the region whose oil is not moving. Before the war, it exported roughly 1.7 million barrels a day. In September, satellite data showed no Iranian crude leaving by sea at all. That is the work of the American naval blockade reimposed in July.
Last week, Iran offered to reopen the strait within seven days. Its price was the release of frozen funds, an end to sanctions, and an end to the blockade. The president said no. A regime that was winning would not be begging for its money back.
Something more remarkable is happening alongside the oil. Our Arab allies are cooperating with Israel in ways they never have before. The Abraham Accords proved in President Trump’s first term that Arab governments could work openly with the Jewish state, and this war has turned that diplomatic normalization into practical cooperation. Iran has fired on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain. Those governments now understand that the threat to their people comes from Tehran, not Jerusalem.
Inside Iran, the regime is losing its grip. Outbreaks of violence suggest a destabilization campaign that the security services cannot contain.
None of this means the war is won. The pressure has to continue, and this White House should resist the voices internally who think a regime that chants “Death to America” can be bargained with.
A month ago, Iran thought it could hold the world hostage at the gas pump. Today the Gulf’s oil is moving and Iran’s is not. President Trump deserves the credit for that.