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I studied British history in college and grad school and am struck by the parallels between the British Empire in days of yore and the United States today.
The era of British supremacy began with the defeat of Napoleon in 1815 and lasted well over a century. By the end of World War II, the United States had taken over the top spot. And yet, over the past decade, the United States has appeared to be following the example of its onetime mother country as its pillars of political, economic and military supremacy are cracking if not crumbling.
A century ago, the British Empire controlled roughly a quarter of the world’s land and a little over one-fifth of its population. Excluding its contested claim in Antarctica, Britain and its remaining overseas territories now account for less than 1% of the world’s land and population. A coffin nail was driven into any pretense of imperial power when the U.K. returned Hong Kong to China in 1997 under an agreement guaranteeing a high degree of autonomy. In 2020, the British government said China’s new national security law constituted “a clear and serious breach” of the agreement, but the U.K. had little leverage to enforce it.
The United States has exerted its military and diplomatic power through NATO in Europe and a network of alliances and security treaties across Asia and the Americas. Trump is signaling the abandonment of the American version of empire. For example, he has said he would not always defend a NATO country under attack and in 2025 refused to rule out force in claiming Greenland, a territory belonging to NATO ally Denmark.
Around 1860 the British Empire produced about 29% of the world’s manufactured goods. A decade later it accounted for roughly 24% of global economic output. Those days are long gone. In 2024 China generated an estimated 32% of world manufacturing value added, more than double the United States’ 15%. For every electric car manufactured in the United States, China manufactures more than 10. All the while, the Trump administration has rolled back federal policies designed to encourage electric vehicles and other clean-energy initiatives, including ending federal clean-vehicle tax credits.
In 1879, Zulu warriors, armed primarily with assegai spears and clubs, defeated a British force using artillery and firearms at Isandlwana. An imbalance between cheap weapons and advanced military technology is playing out again today in the Persian Gulf, where American forces are trying to counter low-cost drones with multimillion-dollar missiles and aircraft. An Iranian Shahed-136 attack drone runs around $35,000.
Before the end of this decade, the U.S. will need to decide whether it will continue to support the alliances, military strength and open economic system that formed the foundation of its global influence.