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As predictions of a blue wave swell, it’s worthwhile to remember that polls are sometimes wrong, that surveys have tended to undercount Trump voters, that professional prognosticators can err, and that Allan Lichtman is only right when he’s lucky. And yet, if there has ever been a politician who has invited electoral repudiation by more thoroughly betraying his own voters than Trump has, I can’t think of one.
Trump had the most zealous followers of anyone this side of Osama bin Laden, and in his first term, he did a certain amount of fan service. He cracked down on illegal (and legal) immigration, made gestures toward building a wall on the southern border, cut taxes, withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Climate Accords, and insulted and belittled everyone from Hillary Clinton to John Lewis.
Was there profiteering as well? Sure. Unlike his recent predecessors, Trump declined to place his assets in a blind trust. He assured the nation that his sons were keeping him out of the loop on all matters pertaining to the Trump Organization. His hotels became the go-to spots for favor-seekers both foreign and domestic. The Saudis practically camped out at one of them. But it was all pretty low-key compared with the sequel.
In his second term, Trump has been a caricature of a plutocrat, gilding the Oval Office, grinding the White House East Wing into dust to build his garish ballroom, plastering his name on everything in his line of sight, issuing commemorative coins with his face on them, and vacuuming up wealth for himself and his family on a scale that has never been seen in American history. For his voters, by contrast, he has delivered higher prices, a shambolic mess of a war with Iran, tariffs that hit farmers particularly hard, and an immigration crackdown that has caused Hispanic voters and even some podcast bros to recoil.
Trump entered American politics as the populist. A huge part of his appeal was a familiar one in American politics — anti-corruption. It’s a bitter irony now, but millions of Americans who supported Trump believed they were voting for cleaner government and bought his “drain the swamp” line.
Trump’s second term has been a protracted demolition of his image as a populist every bit as thorough as the destruction of the East Wing. Though some voters recall his promise not to take a salary, it’s tinged with irony now.
Trump exploited preexisting voter cynicism about politicians and made it far worse. Gallup polling from earlier in September found that 89% of Americans now believe that corruption is “widespread in the government.” That is higher than all other members of the OECD, and represents a 16-point increase in two years.
The near-term result of voter disillusionment is very likely to be a drubbing for GOP candidates in five weeks. But the longer-term damage to our civic culture is impossible to calculate. People who lack trust in one another cannot govern effectively. They cannot solve problems. But one thing is certain: The billionaire populist myth is dead, dead, dead.