Democrats are buzzing over the surprise victory of Taylor Rehmet in a Texas state senate race. Rehmet won by 14 points in a Fort Worth-area district Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.

That outcome inspired a piece by Republican strategist Karl Rove titled “Midterms Are Dems’ to Lose — and They May.” Rove doesn’t gloss over Republicans’ weak spots — the president’s dismal approval ratings, falling consumer confidence and the daily churn of Trump-fueled chaos. But he also notes the Democrats’ penchant for nominating far-left activists in moderate districts, candidates who inevitably lose the general.

Rove is right about it all, which leads to a question for Democrats: Have they internalized that a Democratic Socialist who wins New York City would be dead on arrival most everywhere else?

The recent unexpected Democratic wins feature a very different sort of candidate: as moderate, pragmatic and, above all, normal. Rehmet checks the boxes for a Texas Democrat. He is a labor leader who served in the Air Force. He focused his campaign on economic concerns and steered clear of the culture wars.

New York’s “socialist” mayor, Zohran Mamdani, is an outlier. Though an unusually skilled politician, he took less than 51% of the vote — despite being the official Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city.

And moderate Democrats have been winning mayoral races in California. San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie is cracking down on open-air drug markets and clearing homeless encampments. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan opposes a referendum calling for an emergency 5% tax on billionaires’ assets, noting that the top 1% already pay about 40% of California’s taxes.

Back in Texas, Democrats prepare for another promising outcome. Two prominent Democrats are contending for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. One is Jasmine Crockett, the firebrand congresswoman for Dallas and its surrounding areas. The other is James Talarico, a state legislator who presents himself as a progressive Christian.

Primary polls show them neck and neck, but Republicans most fear Talarico because he is more culturally attuned to the conservative state. Crockett may be entertaining, but she’d be the weaker candidate.

Both parties drew lessons from a remarkably close special election for a House seat in a mid-Tennessee district. Trump took it by 22 points in 2024. But only a year later, Republican candidate Matt Van Epps won by only 9 points. And he was running against a community organizer backed by the Democratic Socialists. Aftyn Behn came off as kooky and even invited Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to a rally.

The lesson for Republicans was that their party faces real trouble in the midterms. The lesson for Democrats is broader: Nominate candidates who are bad fits for their districts, then yes, they can lose — even with the Republican brand in tatters.