There is a harsh reality on the horizon about which some in Minot might still be in denial. It isn’t pleasant in the least, but understanding the situation now will save considerable consternation in the near future.

Taxes (and fees) are going to go up in Minot in the next few years. Alternately, city services and expenditures are going to be reduced.

It’s a simple matter of math and of supply and demand.

From the math perspective, the state ended property tax buydowns; with the tradeoff being that the state will pick up the cost of social services. Will that equal out? How will our very obvious need for additional social services impact the ratio of loss to gain?

Math also dictates that the cost of flood protection is going to eat up available revenue. We just witnessed the city facilities fund utilized for city projects that, had they been included, would have blown up the municipal budget. The sales tax collection going into that fund is headed toward utilization for the Northwest Area Water Supply Project and eventually for flood protection, most likely, and won’t be available for off-budget city needs.

From the supply and demand perspective, it seems unlikely that residents are going to advocate for fewer services. Already there is demand for enhanced snow removal. After all the controversy over the new garbage pickup system, are residents willing to accept less frequent service if the situation dictates it?

A few months ago, a city administrator in conversation revealed exactly what the average taxpayer in Minot contributes toward city services. It was an astonishing low number.

Something will have to give. Elected officials might be reticent to point out this reality for obvious political reasons. City Manager Tom Barry has sounded the alarm. Yet still, some folks seem to think there is a way to thrift our way through these tough times.

Make no mistakes. Hopefully, any increase will be minimal. But either higher taxes and fees are going to define the next few years in Minot, or a drop-off in services will.

We can’t hide our heads in the sand.