When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, or even hints that it’s about to, investors cheer.

That’s because lowering rates stokes the overall economy, which sends stock prices higher — usually, that is.

The Fed has initiated 16 rate cut cycles since World War II. In 11 of those cycles, the stock market was higher six months later, and was still higher 12-months later in 13 of them.

Still, sometimes it takes longer for the gains to materialize. Five times since World War II, the S&P 500 was down six months after the start of a Fed rate cut cycle. That includes the 2001 and 2007 cycles, which corresponded with major recessions. The market was still down sharply 12 months after the Fed began to cut rates in each of those years.

“Rate cuts haven’t always led to market recoveries,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

The Fed is facing pressure to cut rates amid signs of slowing economic growth. The benefits of the 2017 tax cuts have waned and President Donald Trump’s tariff threats with China and Mexico have roiled financial markets.

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a rally on Wall Street after he signaled that the Fed is willing to cut interest rates to help stabilize the economy if the trade war between Washington and Beijing starts to crimp growth.

A majority of investors expect a rate cut at the Fed’s July meeting, according to the CME Group.

If it does, should investors expect the move to boost stocks six months from now? Or a replay of the Fed rate cuts over the past two decades?

Stovall says it’s likely that a Fed rate cut this year will drive stocks higher, as he doesn’t see major parallels now with the economy and markets in 2001 and 2007.

That doesn’t mean the market will necessarily be spared more volatility in coming months, given the market’s jitters over the U.S.-China trade dispute and the damage it could do to the global economy and corporate profits.

“Recessions have not been be repealed, but maybe they could be postponed,” Stovall said. “Maybe what we find is that a rate cut, or a series of rate cuts, helps this bull market last a little bit longer, but it’s probably just delaying the inevitable.”

US retail sales rose 0.5% in May, led by online shopping

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans stepped up their retail spending last month, a sign that recent worries about cautious consumers dragging on growth may have been overdone.

The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales rose 0.5% in May, after a smaller gain of 0.3% in the previous month. April’s figure was revised up from an earlier estimate that had showed a decline.

The report suggests that American consumers are still spending at a healthy pace, even as the stimulus from tax cuts fades. In June, the economy reached its 10th year of expansion, tying the 1990s as the longest on record. Measures of consumer confidence, after stumbling this spring amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, have returned to nearly 19-year highs.

The figures also lessen pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates. Other recent data, such as weak job growth in May and choppy consumer spending earlier this year, has led most economists to expect at least one or two cuts this year.

“The consumer didn’t fall by the wayside,” David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Financial, said. “The concerns that the economy is really slipping dangerously are overstated at this point.”

Retail sales had been uneven earlier this year, making it harder for economists to get a handle on consumer spending. But with April’s revision, sales have now increased for three straight months. And with the unemployment rate at a five-decade low of 3.6% and wage gains easily outpacing inflation, consumer spending will likely keep growing this year.

Sales at electronics stores jumped 1.1% and rose 0.7% at auto dealers. Sales in a category that mostly includes online retailers rose 1.4%.

Still, the economy is forecast to slow in the April-June quarter, expanding at roughly a 2% annual pace or less, analysts expect. That would be down from 3.2% in the first three months of this year.

Retail spending was healthy in many categories. Restaurants and bars reported that spending rose 0.7%, a good sign because such spending is more discretionary than purchases at grocery stores or gas stations. Sporting goods and hobby stores saw sales rise a strong 1.1%.