Submitted Photo North Dakota is among much of the western United States where drought conditions persist and, says the National Weather Service, conditions are likely to worsen in the months ahead.

No snow cover and daily temperatures flirting with record highs signals a very welcome and early spring for North Dakota. The celebration could be short lived, however.

The National Weather Service on Monday issued their first-ever Drought Briefing, warning that severe drought conditions throughout most of the state are likely to “persist or worsen” through spring and well into the summer. It’s not good news for a state where agriculture is a major contributor to the economy and livelihood of many residents.

“It’s important for our partners and the public to know,” said Megan Jones, NWS meteorologist in Bismarck, when asked about the decision to issue a Drought Briefing.

Nearly three-quarters of North Dakota is considered to be in severe drought according to the Drought Monitor, with moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions over the rest of the state, primarily in the southeast. Without any significant moisture expected much of the state remains poised to enter “extreme” drought conditions.

“We pretty much know where we’re at,” explained Jones. “We hope it changes but we don’t really have any scientific basis to back that. Everything is pretty much in agreement for warm and dry, which is not good for drought news.”

Precipitation in 2020 was roughly half of normal for the Minot area and much of the rest of the state. So far in 2021 moisture has been all but non-existent with a mere 22-hundredths of precipitation recorded at the Minot International Airport, 20% of average. A bit more precipitation has been recorded in 2021 to date at the North Central Research and Experiment Station south of the city, 0.83 inch, but still well below normal for the year.

The last few months of 2019 saw heavy rainfall over much of the region, so much so that there was ample soil moisture that led to seed germination and a generally productive growing season for the state in 2020 despite less than average rainfall. This spring though, soil conditions are much, much different.

“Below normal soil moisture going into spring is likely to contribute to widespread worsening of drought designations early in the growing season as impacts to crops and native vegetation may quickly manifest themselves,” reads the Drought Briefing.

Dry conditions have reached the point where some don’t believe an inch or two of rain will have much of an impact in alleviating soil moisture concerns. And don’t look for any improvement in the short term. The Climate Prediction Center favors below-normal chances of precipitation for all of the state through March 21.

“We’re stuck in a dry pattern and it has really gotten worse,” said Jones. “Even for later in the summer forecasts favor above-normal temps and below-normal precipitation.”

While the CPC earlier placed North Dakota in the “equal chance” of normal precipitation for March-April-May, the June-July-August outlook calls for below-normal precipitation and an elevated chance of higher than usual temperatures, part of the reason why the NWS determined a Drought Briefing was necessary.

“At this point we’re not seeing any evidence of a change in our weather pattern so we may as well give people a heads up,” said Jones.