The potential for spring flooding along the Souris River remains very low

Souris River Basin very dry

A survey of the Souris River basin, notably the lack of snowpack, confirms what the latest Flood Potential Outlook for the Souris contains - "overall flood risk within the Souris River Basin is at well below normal risk levels."

The National Weather Service issued the outlook Thursday. It covers the period of Feb. 15 through May 16 and is virtually unchanged from the January outlook. The biggest reason why is the continued lack of snow cover that can melt and produce runoff.

"Snowpack generally ranges from near zero moisture across large areas in the western part of the state," reads the outlook. It adds the following in reference to the Souris River Basin.

"The Turtle Mountains and in the very upstream parts of the basin in Canada, up to one inch of snow water equivalent can be found in small areas, but the average is nearer one-half inch. This is well below normal for this time of year…"

High runoff seasons, such as what occurred during the historic 2011 flood, have had a snowpack with a water equivalent of three to six inches. Wet soils and deep frost can also contribute to higher than normal runoff. That's not currently the case, with minimal frost and very dry conditions throughout the region and state.

The outlook describes current frost depths as "something less than normal" and adds that even with the recent spell of sub-zero temperatures, most soil locations provide "significant porosity." That means the soil will accept moisture and minimize whatever runoff might occur this spring.

Chances of reaching even minor flood stage at nearly all locations along the Souris River are rated at less than five percent. The long-range weather outlook for the remainder of the month favors "below normal precipitation" while favoring "slightly above normal" precipitation through April.