FARGO – A new economic forecast from North Dakota State University indicates North Dakota is approaching a possible recovery from the economic impacts of COVID-19.

The report forecasts increases in total wages and salaries, labor force numbers, gross state product and total tax collections in coming months. However, the unemployment rate could possibly increase initially in 2021, demonstrating lingering difficulties in the labor market, before falling later in the year.

The forecast released by the Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise Wednesday is based on a North Dakota Forecast Model developed by its director, Jeremy Jackson, professor of economics at NDSU.

North Dakota’s recovery is expected to occur independently of any trend in the price of crude oil. The greatest impact on oil prices is in state tax collections, but models show the state will fare well even at low oil prices, according to the report.

Commodity prices for wheat, corn and soybeans, which have rallied recently, are forecast to decrease slightly into 2021, while crude oil prices should show a slight increase. However, there is a high level of uncertainty over all commodity price trends.

– Jill Schramm