Kim Fundingsland/MDN Water levels in the Souris River are so low that it can be jumped across in many places. This photograph was taken near the Colton Avenue bridge in Burlington.

It has been nearly 10 years since the historic flood of 2011 tore through the Souris River Valley and ripped through Minot, leaving scars still visible today. Now the Souris River sits quiet, with so little water in it that it can be walked across on dirt, sand bars or rock in many places.

The entire drainage, from Sakakatchewan, Canada to Minot and points downstream, has so little snow cover that measuring the moisture content in it is an exercise in futility. Throughout the Souris River basin the snow water equivalency ranges from zero to a scant quarter-inch.

“It’s amazing. That’s the only way I can describe it,” said Allen Schlag, National Weather Service hydrologist in Bismarck. “Mother Nature goes from one extreme to another.”

Schlag authored the latest Flood Potential Outlook for the Souris River basin this week. Probalistic outlooks are based on 30 years or more of climatological data. The conclusion? There’s a less than 5% chance of the Souris River or any of its main tributaries reaching even minor flood stage this spring.

“About once every 10 years we see something similar to this, but this year it has been very pronounced with warm temperatures and little to no snow,” said Schlag. “What little snow we’ve received has melted or evaporated away.”

Of course, March and April snowstorms are known to dump one to three feet of snow in North Dakota. However, even that much snow wouldn’t have much of an effect on runoff. The reason being conditions are remarkably dry with little or no soil moisture throughout the drainage.

While a sudden and large accumulation of snow wouldn’t significantly impact the flood outlook, it could, said Schlag, go a long ways toward alleviating the lack of soil moisture.

“In March we get these Colorado lows coming up and carrying a lot of moisture and, bang, we’ve got an inch and a half of water sitting on the ground,” explained Schlag. “If we do get 1 1/2, which isn’t that doggone much, it does heal much of the ills of the drought.”

Currently though, warm temperatures and a melt across the entire Souris River basin wouldn’t be noticed in river or reservoir levels. What little snow cover is on the ground now would easily be absorbed into the dry soil.

“Most of the Souris Basin has a quarter of an inch of water or less on the ground, not very much,” said Schlag.

Given current conditions, added Schlag, the “bigger risk” is that the melt passes and the region goes right into drought which has been developing for the past 9-10 months.

According to the latest Flood Potential Outlook, “the overall flood risk within the Souris River basin is well below normal for February through May” and the “lack of water in the snowpack suggests drought may be a greater concern going into spring than flooding.”

Furthermore, reads the outlook, long-range weather forecasts only slightly favor “above normal” precipitation through April and the “risk of entering the spring melt season with a well above normal snowpack should be considered low even if the region were to experience above normal precipitation.”

The next Flood Potential Outlook for the Souris River will be issued Feb. 11.