The latest three-month weather outlook for the United States places the Minot region on the fringe of areas considered to have greater than normal chances for above average precipitation and temperatures through January. The long-range outlook was issued Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center.

During El Nino or La Nina episodes, long-range winter prognostication carries with it a reasonable chance of accuracy. However, says the CPC, conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which greatly influence formation of winter weather in the United States, are considered “neutral.” That means there is no certain indicator of a warmer or colder winter for North Dakota.

While oceanic and atmospheric indicators consulted by the CPC do not specifically favor a warmer or colder than usual winter, the CPC concludes there is a 33% chance most of North Dakota, including the Minot area, could experience warmer than usual temperatures through January. Not much warmer though.

For an El Nino to be declared, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific must reach at least plus 0.5 degrees. According to the CPC, that indicator is plus 0.4 degrees and is not expected to increase in the coming months. There is, says the CPC, “considerable spread across the various model forecasts over the next six months.” Still, the majority of outlooks favor a continuation of neutral conditions.

The precipitation outlook is of particular interest in the Minot area, primarily due to exceedingly wet conditions already in place. If wet ground persists into the spring it has the possibility of elevating the spring runoff resulting from winter snowpack. According to the latest CPC outlook, “above-normal seasonal total precipitation” is anticipated for the “northern Rockies and the north-central Great Plains.”

The CPC’s forecast of more than usual precipitation, or snow, and warmer than usual temperatures must be placed in a historical perspective. The climatic normals used by the CPC in compiling their three-month outlook are based on weather from 1981-2010, thereby reflecting comparisons to the most recent decades of complete weather data.

Minot’s average snowfall for November, December and January is 8.2 inches, 7.6 inches and 10.8 inches respectively. The average precipitation total for those months, either in the form of rain or water contained in snowfall, is 1.64 inches.

Average temperatures for Minot, based on highs and lows for each day, are 28 degrees in November, 15 degrees in December and 12 degrees in January. Should those averages be exceeded, as is suggested by the latest three-month outlook, it would probably be to little to notice.

Incidentally, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts temperatures in our region to be three degrees above normal in November, six degrees above normal in December and 1.5 degrees below normal in January. Precipitation, says the Almanac, should be less than normal in November, about normal in December and above normal in January.

In conclusion, utilizing the latest available data, it appears Minot and much of North Dakota will experience winter as usual. That is, unless the forecast changes when the CPC issues their next long-range outlook November 21st.

For the shorter term, October 24-30, the CPC says the Minot area can expect normal precipitation and lower than normal temperatures. Minot’s average daytime high temperatures for that period is 47 to 50 degrees with nigh8ttime lows from 28 to 31 degrees.