The warmer than usual temperatures that prevailed over much of the Minot region earlier this winter may not return for several weeks. The Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly long-range forecast update Thursday, saying the warm weather pattern over much of the United States “flipped during later December.”

The CPC notes that earlier forecasts calling for above normal temperatures for this time period have fallen victim to “weaker signals,” namely the delay in the anticipated formation of El Nino. El Nino is a warming of Pacific Ocean water that generally leads to warmer winter weather for much of the northern U.S., North Dakota included.

However, the expected link between the warmer ocean water and the atmosphere, which is referred to a “coupling” by the CPC, has yet to take place. And, says the CPC, may not do so in the near future. As the CPC puts it, “There is no obvious indication that this long-awaited ocean-atmosphere coupling will take place before the end of boreal winter.”

The CPC states the probability of an El Nino officially forming remains at 65 percent. It has always expected to be of “nominal or weak intensity,” but nevertheless would play a role in tipping the scales toward a more pleasant winter than usual for North Dakota.

Now it appears, and is supported by the CPC’s latest 3-month weather outlook, that El Nino is poised to bring warmer than usual temperatures to the Minot area in early spring. Long-range outlooks for March optimistically call for daytime highs to be several degrees above normal. The short-term outlook is much different.

Forecasts favor colder than normal temperatures for the remainder of January. Minot’s average daytime highs for the remainder of this month are 21-22 degrees but temperatures in the single digits and low teens are considered more likely for the period. In addition, the chance of precipitation, which would be in the form of snow, is considered well above average through the end of this month.

The first day of winter officially arrived Dec. 21, the shortest day of the year. By the end of this month the length of daylight in Minot will be 9 hours, 26 minutes, an increase of one hour and 6 minutes from the beginning of winter.