February weather is expected to behave as usual, but the Minot region can expect warmer than normal temperatures in March and April. That’s the opinion of the Climate Prediction Center, which was revealed in their latest outlook issued Jan. 15.

If the long-range outlook proves true, it would mean a very pleasant lead-in to the planting season, which gets under way in earnest each May.

According to the CPC three-month temperature outlook, spanning February and March, nearly the entire western United States will experience warmer than usual temperatures, particularly after February. All of northwest North Dakota is included in the “warmer” than usual zone. The designation means the Minot region has a greater than 30 percent possibility of achieving above normal temperatures.

If that were to occur, and the long-term forecasters are betting that it will, it would be in conflict with the predictions issued much further in advance by the Old Farmer’s Almanac. While there always seem to be some room for interpretation of the famed almanac trusted by many, there’s no escaping the fact that the Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting temperatures averaging five degrees below normal for the Minot region in March and three degrees below normal in April.

The CPC outlook may be preferable, even based on the latest weather patterns, but the Old Farmer’s Almanac has a pretty fair history of reliability. Which outlook will prove to be the most accurate won’t be known until May 1.

An examination of average temperatures in Minot for the period Feb.-April reveals some interesting numbers. According to the National Weather Service, February’s long-term average high is 25.4 degrees, March 37.1, and April 54.9. Average temperatures, which include the overnight lows, are less with February at 17 degrees, March 28.3 and April 43.4.

The problem is, there is no guarantee of “average” in the Minot area where the weather is prone to dramatic highs and lows. For example, the record low for March is minus 40 and the record lows for every day of the month are below zero readings. April is later in the calendar but not a whole lot different for producers in terms of record low temperatures. April’s record low is minus 13 and all other daytime low marks are below freezing.

Further study of temperature records reveal that no month has completely escaped below freezing weather in the Minot area. Freezing temperatures can strike during the planting or harvest season, meaning producers must always be aware of changing weather patterns and forecasts.