That’s the main take-away from the final El Nino Advisory issued Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center.

The advisory concluded there is a 50-55% chance of “neutral” conditions, primarily due to sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean, to “continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2019-2020.” A warming of Pacific Ocean waters is one of the key triggers to El Nino. Cooler than average temperatures in the Pacific indicates La Nina conditions, raising the possibility of a colder and wetter influence on winter weather patterns over much of the United States.

The last major El Nino occurred in the winter of 2015-2016. It resulted in the warmest year on record in North Dakota with an average high of 47 degrees for Minot in 2016. A slight El Nino was declared by the CPC last winter but it did not have a particularly noticeable effect on Minot’s winter weather.

Having no El Nino for the upcoming winter does not mean our weather in the months ahead will see below normal temperatures or increased snowfall. In fact, the 3-month outlook issued by the CPC Aug. 15 calls for a nearly 50% chance of warmer than usual temperatures through November.

Kim Fundingsland/MDN Despite more cool, rainy weather in Minot, the Climate Prediction Center advises the area has a 50% chance of averaging higher than normal Sept. 19-25.

While such long-range outlooks are of interest, even encouraging to some, it must be remembered that long-range weather forecasting is often subject to change. The next 3-month outlook issued by the CPC will be on Sept. 19.

The CPC’s latest 8-14 day outlook, which has a higher probability of accuracy than a 3-month issuance, says temperatures in the Minot area have a 50% chance of averaging higher than normal Sept. 19-25. Average high temperatures for those days range in the upper 60s.

Along with expected warmer temps comes an elevated prospect of more rainfall. According to the CPC the probability of above average rainfall Sept. 19-25 is also 50%. While this year is an exception, average monthly rainfall in September is only 1.46 inches. Minot however, surpassed that total several days ago, including 1.42 inches that fell on the city on Sept. 2,

Kim Fundingsland/MDN Along with expected warmer temps comes an elevated prospect of more rainfall.