December certainly has been a very warm month in the Minot region, at least for wintertime in North Dakota. Temperatures will be somewhat lower in the days ahead but still quite nice for the season. The Climate Prediction Center says the trend will continue.

The CPC issued its monthly long-range weather outlook Thursday. The western half of the United States, North Dakota included, is rated as having an “above normal” chance of experiencing higher than usual temperatures through March.

That doesn’t mean it’s time to start filling outdoor swimming pools and put away winter coats, but rather that our average temperatures in the weeks ahead will probably be one or two degrees higher than expected. In short, the CPC anticipates that we will have more warm days than cold as compared to the long-term average.

December’s average temperature for Minot through Wednesday of this week was 36.5 degrees. The record high average temperature for the entire month of December in Minot is 29.0 degrees, set in 1939. Although our temperatures are expected to fall somewhat in the coming days and bring the month’s daily average down, chances are very good that this month will be recorded as the warmest December in state history.

Early expectations

for spring runoff

While there is certainly no certainty to long-range forecasting, professionals delve into historic indicators to arrive at the most probable conclusions. Hydrologist Allen Schlag, National Weather Service in Bismarck, has looked at a variety of factors to arrive at a very early scenario for 2019 spring runoff, including for the Souris River.

“My long-range expectations for spring 2019 are rather tempered right now,” said Schlag. “In short, until something changes, I am expecting a relatively quiet spring flood season in 2019.”

Naturally, given the unpredictable nature of weather, there are numerous possibilities that can arise in the next few months to effect the outcome of snowmelt runoff next spring. While adjustments to the early expectations can be expected as the season progresses, there is a solid basis for initial conclusions.

Among the factors considered is that the CPC places the odds of an El Nino officially being declared at 90 percent. Although forecasters say the El Nino will be a weak one, it is expected to result in somewhat warmer than usual temperatures for our region through early spring. If so, that could translate into an early runoff.

“Local research puts the peak streamflow after an El Nino as being about 10 days earlier than normal on the Souris above Minot,” said Schlag. “Volumes and rate of runoff also tend to be relatively modest after El Nino winters.”

A recent change in the CPC’s summary of what effects an El Nino influence will have on our weather this winter is the precipitation probabilities. Early indicators strongly signaled a drier than normal winter for most of North Dakota. Now the CPC has backed off that prognostication in favor of what they term “equal chances” of above or below normal precipitation.

The CPC may be using an abundance of caution in the latest precipitation outlook as other forecast indicators, some considered quite reliable, still place a high probability on a drier than usual winter. Again, adjustments to the long-range outlook can be expected, particularly in regard to the progress of El Nino.

While our unusual December is on track to be near the top of the all-time records for average high temperatures and nearly the same for low precipitation, an official El Nino event has not yet materialized. Nevertheless, no matter the strength, El Nino weather patterns historically have meant warmer than usual temperatures and drier than usual conditions for the winter months in North Dakota.

“We know that the El Nino is going to have an effect on us,” said Schlag. “The full definition of winter rarely ends for us in February. This makes the months of March and early April of interest to us as well, and when we look that far out during an El Nino affected winter and spring, we also tend to see a warmer than normal signature.”