Submitted Photo The red area on this map released Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor shows the broad area of North Dakota considered to be in extreme drought conditions. The orange shaded area indicates severe drought conditions.

It didn’t seem like it could get much worse, but it has. The weekly release by the U.S. Drought Monitor issued Thursday shows a greatly expanded portion of North Dakota is now considered to be in severe or extreme drought.

The Drought Monitor uses a five step rating system – abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional. A week ago less than 40 percent of the state was considered to be in severe drought. That percentage has risen to 47 percent. Of even more significance is the change in this week’s extreme drought category, which jumped from just less than eight percent one week ago to slightly more than 25 percent this week.

“We’re overly dry. I would say 50-60 percent of the wheat is completely shot,” said Chris Gratton, CHS Garrison. “Most of the wheat is headed out at eight to 10 inches high with four to five spikelets in the head.”

Short wheat with only a few kernels of grain probably won’t be harvested. Row crops in the Garrison region are hanging on but are in need of moisture in the coming days if they are going to continue to grow and develop.

“The little rain we’ve had helped but not enough to save them,” said Gratton. “The wheat is in the worst shape but the row crops are not far behind.”

Doug Smette, manager of CHS SunPrairie Grain in Ryder, says conditions in that immediate area are not much better.

“It’s pretty dry out here. Crops are up and heading out. They’re pretty short,” said Smette. “The cool weather has helped out more than anything for right now, but if there’s no more rain and it stays hot the crops will probably be cut in half.”

The hay crop, or rather the lack of it, is being felt by livestock producers who count on average rainfall to grow the hay needed to feed their livestock. However, there’s very little growth on countless acres of pasture land.

“There’s little or nothing out there,” remarked Gratton. “A lot of cattle are going to sale barns.”

In an effort to help livestock growers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has expanded emergency grazing on land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program in much of the state. The situation is bad enough that Gov. Doug Burgum has declared a drought emergency for 26 counties. The declaration activates state programs to assist farmers and ranchers. The actions will help some but cannot replace a soaking rain desperately needed throughout much of the state.

The Minot area ranks among the hardest hit by a lack of rainfall this year. Since Jan. 1, Minot’s official precipitation total is a mere 2.59 inches, or 6.15 inches less than normal for the date. Hettinger has received a scant 1.28 inches of rain, nearly seven inches below normal. Dickinson just 2.91 inches which is 5.20 inches less than normal. Even average rainfall for the remainder of the growing season won’t be enough to rescue stricken crops and hayland.

The National Weather Service issued a Drought Information Statement this week in response to severe to extreme drought conditions across much of western and central North Dakota. It says soil moisture conditions continue to fall over a broad portion of the state, adding that soil moisture analysis indicates “moisture has fallen to the 5th to 10th driest percentiles across much of western into south central North Dakota.”

The NWS notes that flows in the Little Missouri River are only 5-10 cubic feet per second in the Medora area where the long term median is 400-500 cfs. Furthermore says the NWS statement, the lack of soil moisture reduces the moisture source for thunderstorm development.

A lot has changed in one week. The NWS says “the most deterioration occurred in the Dakotas, especially northwestern South Dakota and North Dakota, where the rapidly worsening conditions warranted expansion of moderate, severe and extreme drought to many regions.”

Looking ahead, there doesn’t appear to be any relief in the near future. In fact, temperatures are expected to rise with little chance of rain through mid-July.

“There could be some late afternoon and nighttime thundershowers, but it will be hit and miss,” said Nathan Heinert, Bismarck NWS meteorologist. “There’s nothing widespread on the horizon at this point.”

Burn bans are in place for several counties in the state, including Ward County. The bans take effect when the fire danger index reaches a designated stage. Ward County was listed as being in the low category on Thursday. However, the fire danger index is based on humidity, winds, temperature and other factors and can change greatly within a few hours.

Of great interest to many is whether or not fireworks will be permitted on the Fourth of July. That will be determined by the fire danger index on that day. For example, if the fire danger index should climb into the high category on the Fourth then Ward County’s burn ban would go into effect and fireworks would not be allowed.

Each county determines what level of the fire danger index will activate their burn bans and fireworks restrictions. Some counties have already put restrictions on fireworks. The fire danger index is constantly updated and can be accessed online.