British pound in royal trouble

The United Kingdom has selected a new leader, and financial markets are sour on the choice.

Boris Johnson, former mayor of London, was chosen to replace Theresa May as British Prime Minister on July 22. He has been a leading proponent of the British exit from the European Union, and his rise to power increases the chance of a “hard Brexit,” whereby the UK leaves the EU without a plan in place.

In his first week in power, Johnson reiterated that Brexit must happen by Oct. 31, whether or not a deal has been cut with the EU, which could leave Britain financially isolated.

Market watchers expect that a hard Brexit could cause a recession and further erosion in the value of the pound. Rising fears of economic catastrophe have caused the British pound to fall to a two-year low, trading Friday near $1.24.

For Americans, this means that a vacation to London or buying British goods will be cheaper, but U.S. firms that sell to the UK could see vanishing demand for their wares. The UK is 5th largest buyer of American goods, and is a significant market for U.S. aircraft, machines, and agricultural products.

Cattle higher

Cattle prices jumped last week to a one-month high with August live cattle futures topping $1.09 per pound. Cash prices in the Great Plains are even higher, spurning hope for a further rally.

Feedlots and meatpackers all watch the price for cattle in Chicago, but local supply and demand factors can push local prices above or below the futures markets, a difference known as the “basis.”

Overall, U.S. inventory of cattle is near an all-time high, but falling figures for breeding animals and calf supply are signaling that herds will likely shrink in the coming years, creating a supply shortage and encouraging higher prices.

There is potential for additional beef exports to China if trade disputes are settled; due to the ongoing African Swine Fever in China, Chinese beef demand has blossomed, but they are primarily buying from Brazil and Australia, two of the United States’ major beef competitors.