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How the Cloud Modification Project works

Conducted between June and August, the goal of the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project is to increase growing season rainfall while at the same time reducing hail damage to crops. Members of the group wait on standby for a call about a storm moving through the area. If proper storm conditions exist meaning there is a growing cloud that has an updraft one of six specially-equipped airplanes is sent up to meet the cloud. The operators then release silver iodide, an inorganic compound whose crystals resemble the shape of ice crystals, from above or below the cloud. The compound tricks the water into starting the pooling process where the droplets eventually gain enough mass to fall as rain.

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A recent study conducted by economists from North Dakota State University shows the significant economic impact the state's Cloud Modification Project has on several western North Dakota counties, including Ward County.

North Dakota's Cloud Modification Project uses aircraft, chemicals and meteorological technology to reduce hail damage and increase precipitation in Bowman, McKenzie, Mountrail, Ward, Williams and part of Slope counties.

The study, written by economists Larry Leistritz and Dean Bangsund, analyzed the project's economic impact on agricultural production in the six-county area as a result of increased rainfall and reduced crop-hail loss.

Cloud seeding evaluated at enhanced rainfall levels of 5 and 10 percent figures that were obtained from results of several long-term studies revealed an annual increase in the value of crop production at those intervals to be $8.4 million to $16 million.

In its evaluation of crop output from hail suppression, the study showed a positive impact of $3.7 million per year. Combining that figure with the $8.4 million and $16 million from the increased crop production, the study estimate's the project's total direct economic impact to be between $12 million and $19.7 million each year.

"Based on the prior economic study that was done in 1998, we knew the project was quite viable and economic, but I have to say that I was quite surprised by the level of economic impact we have," said Darin Langerud, director of the state's Atmospheric Resource Board, which oversees the program. "Our budget this year for the program is $768,000, so to have a $16 to $26 return for every dollar we invested is great. That's the type of investment anyone would make."

"From a producer's perspective, the direct economic value of cloud seeding, averaged across the program's counties, is estimated to range from $5.16 to $8.41 per planted acre," said Dean Bangsund, co-author of the study and a research scientist at NDSU. "Those values represent a meaningful boost in revenues to producers."

In Ward County, the Cloud Modification Project was shown to have an annual economic impact of $4.7 million to $7.7 million.

Expanding beyond the current program boundaries the study also attempted to calculate the potential benefits of a hypothetical statewide program using the top eight crops grown in the state. The analysis showed a hypothetical direct impact of $95 million to $135 million and the gross economic benefits to average between $294 million and $414 million.

Although the study's positive economic figures show great promise for North Dakota communities and its residents, the overall effectiveness of cloud seeding continues to be debated by experts and meteorological groups.

The World Meteorological Organization said in a September 2007 statement, "economic analyses show that rainfall enhancement and hail suppression operations, if successful, could have significant economic benefit, but uncertainties make investments in such efforts subject to considerable risks."

Those uncertainties include the lack of substantial scientific evidence and the, "unintended consequences of cloud seeding, such as downwind effects and environmental and ecological impacts, (which) have not been demonstrated but cannot be ruled out."

Citing the statistical analysis of several long-term projects, the American Meteorological Society said in a policy statement that seasonal precipitation increases of up to 10 percent have been realized, but it also notes that cloud seeding effectiveness to suppress hail and reduce crop damage has remained indeterminate due to a wide range of documented experimental and operational outcomes.

For Langerude, cloud seeding is a win for the state and its agricultural producers.

"We've been involved in this for over half a century and the results we have found in North Dakota are similar in scope to what has been found in other parts of the U.S. and the world," he said. "One of the reasons we did the study was because of how the program is paid for through a county-state partnership. We wanted to make sure the dollars were going to something positive, and I think we accomplished that."