CROP REPORT: Farmers predict mixed bag of yields
By MARVIN BAKER, Staff Writer, news@minotdailynews.comArticle Photos
As the 2008 small grain harvest begins to trickle in, producers and elevator managers are thinking it is going to be a mixed bag of yields, test weights and proteins.
Lingering drought, spotty rains and a cool, then hot summer gave crops a late start across the northwest and when they got going, heat and little moisture pushed them to maturity too fast.
Some areas of the northwest did get adequate sun and moisture that brought the barley, wheat and oats to maturity at the right pace.
A select few barley samples have graded malt quality in the northwest, but many others have lower quality and elevator managers are in agreement that because of the summer conditions, feed barley may be the norm across the northern tier.
Bottineau County Extension agent Tim Semler suggested ripe fields may be a little deceiving with regard to quality.
"The fields look ripe, but many of the lower areas in the fields are not ripe yet and will be green when producers get into them," Semler said. "So it's a waiting game."
Brad Haugeberg, the manager of SunPrairie Grain in Minot, said midweek that only one sample of barley had been received at the elevator and it was very thin and very light, but it came from some stressed ground.
"I had one producer tell me he cut 36 acres and that graded malt," Haugeberg said. "We didn't see the sample, and I don't know who did."
Haugeberg said SunPrairie agronomists are suggesting an average crop this year.
Ted Warehime, the merchandising manager at Dakota Midland Grain in Voltaire, has seen some early barley as well and said it really doesn't look good thus far.
But like Haugeberg, he added it's really early in the season and two or three samples aren't indicative of the entire crop.
Officially, on a statewide basis, 52 percent of the barley crop in North Dakota is in good to excellent condition, which is a decrease from 71 percent in early July, according to the North Dakota Barley Council.
As of July 27, 32 percent of the crop was reported to be in fair condition, while 12 percent was rated in poor condition and 4 percent in very poor condition.
Steve Edwardson, the administrator of the North Dakota Barley Council, said growers in the southwest have reported yields of six-row barley in the range of 8 to 15 bushels per acre, with test weights ranging from 36 to 40 pounds per bushel. Barley's standard test weight is 48 pounds.
Two-row varieties have fared better in the southwest, pushing up to 50 bushels per acre, with 45 pounds per bushel being the average.
The jury is still out for producers in the northwest, according to Edwardson.
"Growers are guardedly optimistic about their 2008 crop," he said. "High input prices will require stable production and price to secure an opportunity for profit. Most commodities are experiencing generally good prices at this point in time, and thus there is optimism for profitability going into harvest."
The same fate awaits pulse crops, especially in the Mon-Dak region, said Eric Bartsch, the general manager of United Pulse Trading in Williston.
"Areas south of Williston are extremely stressed with drought, and yields have been well below average," Bartsch said. "Crops north of Williston have been looking better with recent rains but production was hurt with the dry conditions throughout most of the growing season."
Semler described the pea crop much as he did barley. He said it's deceiving. He said pea fields look great when you drive past them, but when you actually go into a field and begin scouting, you find that some of the pods don't have peas, which means much lower yields.
Lack of moisture may affect soybeans in the same way as fall approaches.
But Bartsch said even if peas and lentils produce a marginal stand this year, they're still going to be putting nitrogen back into the soil, which will reduce a portion of the input costs that have skyrocketed in 2008.
"Producers always comment on the success of their wheat crop when following peas and lentils," Bartsch said. "The savings in nitrogen inputs and the improved quality of the small grains has been a major plus for producers who have incorporated pulse crops into their rotation."
Ironically, canola is expected to produce a decent crop this year, according to Barry Coleman, the executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association.
Cool conditions that prevailed through June actually helped produce more pods, thus the yields should be higher this year.
"For the most part, we expect canola yields to come in at about 100 to 150 pounds per acre higher than last year," Coleman said. "A lot of growers have commented that they think their canola has branched more than last year and therefore has more pods growing and more seeds per pod."
Coleman added some producers might not agree with it, but he looks at production from a statewide window as opposed to individual farms.
Mike Rose wants to be as optimistic as Coleman. He said the rain from a week ago, and from Wednesday night, will help with test weights, which in turn will increase yields.
"It (rain) stops the decline, which was occurring quite rapidly just before the rain last week," Rose, Ward County Extension agent, said. "As we go to the south and west in the area, it gets drier."
Rose added the rain, approximately an inch in Minot, will help the late hay crop and the row crops that have also struggled through the midsummer heat.
Because of the crop diversity of McLean County, Pat Carpentier said nothing will surprise him this harvest. Carpentier, the county's extension agent, talked about grasshoppers and said they won't be a serious problem, but are beginning to work on the bolls of the flax plants.
And as McLean County's flax crop slowly turns ripe, Carpentier isn't sure what producers want to do with their flax.
Carpentier said the county's oat crop looks excellent and it is one grain that seems to excel in conditions that we've had this summer.
On the other hand, he said there was some durum west of Garrison that has already been combined and turned a dismal yield of 5 bushels per acre.
"We were on the verge of a great crop," Carpentier said. "We'll probably end up with an average crop."
