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Could voter re-alignment affect North Dakota

A tightly contested race for a U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania this week, which as of this writing had just been called, accentuates that there has apparently been a re-alignment of voter sensibility. President Trump won the district by some 20 points, but GOP candidate Rick Saccone had a hard time maintaining any traction against winner fresh-faced Democrat Conor Lamb.

In combination with other losses since Trump’s election, Democrats are emboldened and both Democrats and left-leaning media have been quick to predict a Republican blood-letting in the mid-term elections.

But the question remains, even if there is truth at the root of the mainstream media cheerleading, does the phenomenon permeate into the heart of the country, in places where the president’s popularity remains relatively solid. Will even a global shift as predicted saturate the heartland, such as North Dakota, where Trump’s America First agenda reaches the welcoming ears of people who may feel they have been marginalized by the Manhattan/San Francisco-based Democrat Party over the past decade? Is North Dakota going to see a sudden political shift from right to left in the next two and a half years leading up to the next presidential race?

Signs don’t necessarily point that direction.

Polls indicate this is still Trump country. It is hard to imagine welcome tax reform, a hard line on illegal immigration and the potential of a historic negotiated deal with North Korea won’t keep North Dakotans brand-loyal. Even with the president’s personal foibles, questions about agriculture policy and the questionable impact of a tariff regimen, it doesn’t seem likely that regional voters are going to take solace in the arms of a Nancy Pelosi-led party and send a legion of progressives to Bismarck.

It is equally hard to imagine a majority of North Dakota voters gravitating to the Democrat Party that has moved so dramatically to the left. A culture of respect for the law is slow to adapt to cop-bashing, sanctuary cities; and what will be a substantial push for severe gun control seems unlikely to pick up traction either.

Finally, the Pennsylvania contest was hardly typical Democrat vs. Republican. Saccone wasn’t a strong candidate. Lamb, on the other hand, ran as a moderate, even conservative Democrat, and kept as far away from the Pelosi-Sanders-Warren progressive model espoused by the wealthy modern Democrat base.

This leads one to wonder if the tide shift hailed by the left will translate here.

If Democrats have to win by pretending to be conservative, it would seem that can only go so far. In North Dakota, such candidates are likely to be called out.

There is certainly some reason for Democrats – particularly the few remaining middle-of-the-road Democrats – to be optimistic. But does that mean heartland Republicans should be dismayed?

Not yet.

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